Photo: Brad Tutterow
First, here’s how the FPL Panic team did in GW1: We scored 82 for a gameweek (and overall) rank of around 840,000.
Now, what did we learn from the first week of the 2019/20 season?
1: Don’t overreact
So, after the endless pre-season build-up, we finally know what’s what, right? Sterling is essential, Man Utd assets are underpriced, Watford are useless, Pope is the best keeper in the world, Barkley needs transferring out right away…
…no he doesn’t! Hold your horses on any post-GW1 moves other than the plainly obvious (e.g. replacing an injured player).
We’ve had one week so far – that’s one data point. Next week, who knows what will happen? For all we know, it will be the opposite of what did in GW1 – Chelsea beat Leicester, Watford win at Everton, Aguero and Bernardo start…
Don’t do what the FPL community would describe as a ‘knee-jerk’ move. And don’t assume that what happened in GW1 will happen every week.
We’re not saying any conclusions drawn from GW1 are wrong – just that they’re inconclusive. Why not give it another week to collect more data?
2: Rank is meaningless; points are better
An overall rank of 1,500,000 may be a bit poor at the end of the season, but if you’ve got it right now, it’s nothing to be bothered about. Everyone is so tightly packed, and ranks prone to switching around, that it barely matters what yours is.
As a case in point, at the time of writing (pre-update) it took 98 points to get into the top 5k. If you scored 73 points, meanwhile, you would be just outside the top 500k.
Talking in the way FPL managers might usually talk, you might say something like, ‘Ranked 500k – what a disaster! Season over!’
Nonsense – you could easily be ahead of the top-5k guy after GW2.
So instead, try saying this: “I’m 25 points off the top 5k”. Not only does it make you sound better, it is genuinely a more meaningful way to express your position.
3: Players were priced accurately
It was a good weekend for the premiums. Salah 12, Sterling 20, Kane 13, Aubameyang 6… As Ross_FPL pointed out on Twitter, every player costing 10 or more (with the exception of substitute Mané) provided a fantasy return in GW1.
Meanwhile, the FPL Panic team’s budget striker selections of Deulofeu and King not only failed to return, but failed even to play as strikers, reverting to positions on the wing.
Jota, Perez, Robinson, Barkley, Adams, Wesley and Joelinton were among the other budget-priced attacking players to blank.
Player prices may have seemed steep year but GW1 has underlined that when players are given an expensive price tag, it’s for a reason.
4: The 4.0 defender isn’t dead yet
It seemed that the dream of a playing 4.0 defender was fading fast. Then, four of them started.
Hanley, Rico, Lundstram and Kelly all made it into the line-ups for their respective teams. Not that we’d advocate a transfer to bring any of them in, but it does make a team structure with a super-cheap bench a bit more doable.
In particular, Lundstram acquitted himself well (and scored a bonus point!) so may have earned himself a few more weeks in the Sheffield United team.
Kelly got a clean sheet, but you have to expect he’ll lose his spot to Cahill before long. As for the others, Hanley scored -2 after an own goal and Rico saw his clean sheet disappear at the last minute. So overall, though having these guys start is a huge help, you can’t expect big things from them. See rule 3 for more on that one…
5: Chelsea are strangely intriguing
They may have lost 4-0 but the Chelsea team surely contains some underpriced assets, who provide a budget route into a top-six team.
We knew that before GW1, admittedly, but we didn’t know who would actually make it into the starting line-up.
As it happened, Abraham (7.0) got the nod up front and hit the woodwork early on. Popular punt Barkley (6.0) got the start, but more interestingly, so did Mason Mount (also 6.0) and both were lively, at least while they were on the pitch (Barkley departed at 58 minutes).
It’s too early to bring either of them in, but one player caught our eye far more: Emerson (5.5), who got selected ahead of Alonso and appears to have inherited the Alonso role wholesale, hitting the woodwork once and drawing a smart save from de Gea (who got a 10-point haul reminiscent of his 2017/18 glories) shortly after.
He could be a huge source of value – if Chelsea find a rhythm and manage to shut out the smaller teams. To be confirmed…
6: VAR is going to have an effect
The answer to the question ‘is VAR good or bad?’ seems to depend on whether it has recently benefited or disadvantaged your FPL team. Certainly Sterling owners were decrying it after it ruled out a Sterling-assisted goal for an offside by a margin of one micro-millimetre.
What we’ve learned so far is that you can’t celebrate a goal straight away, because VAR could disallow it a minute later. But it goes further than that: It could benefit some players, in particular the regular penalty takers like Aguero.
Kun was handed a relief on Saturday when VAR forced a retake of his missed penalty due to defender encroachment in the box. He scored at the second time of asking.
Honestly, pretty much every penalty gets taken with the keeper off his line or someone else running into the box. So we may see a lot of retakes, and a lot of goals.
7: These guys looked good…
Let’s start with a reinvigorated Man Utd. Rashford (8.5) scored two, but more importantly, took a pen with Pogba on the pitch. Wan-Bissaka (5.5) has settled into his new team instantly, and was a force. Martial (7.5) was playing up front – but relies a bit more on service than Rashford, who has that FPL-friendly selfishness about him.
Digne (6.0) was a highlight for an uninspired Everton, and set Sigurdsson up for a good chance, which he missed.
Coleman and Zinchenko (both 5.5) both acquitted themselves well and may get a few more weeks to hold off the respective challenges to their starting spots.
Despite Dunk outscoring him, Montoya (4.5) was the one to watch for Brighton, continuing to bomb forward even when they were 3-0 up.
Robertson (7.0) blanked, unlike his teammates van Dijk and Alexander-Arnold. But Robbo spent long periods in the opposition box and appears hungry for goals. All three of the well-owned Liverpool defs seem like an attacking force and it’s hard to choose between them. Hold whoever you have.
McGinn (5.5) took his goal well amid an impressive Aston Villa attack. And Norwich, despite losing 4-1, played well – Pukki (6.5) takes the headlines but Cantwell (4.5) was very mobile and could be a good budget option.
Barnes got a double, but has some poor fixtures coming up. Pencil him in for GW5?
8: Seriously. Don’t do anything
We mean it! Unless you have Alisson, Bernardo or Trossard, our strongest advice is don’t do anything and hold the transfer. You’ll get another week’s worth of info, and two free transfers to put that info to use.
Sign out of FPL. Take up cross-stitching. Go on an island retreat. Come back next Friday evening with your mind refreshed… and team untouched. You’ll thank us.
FPL Panic 