Photo: @cfcunofficial (Chelsea Debs)
With the GW1 deadline upon us, there’s one player who’s been the subject of more FPL speculation than any other.
Salah? Sterling? Kane? No… it’s Manchester City’s 22-year-old left-back Oleksandr Zinchenko.
Previously a back-up to Ben Mendy, the Frenchman’s perennial injuries have seen Zinchenko get plenty of game time – he started 10 of the last 12 games in 2018/19. During that time, City kept eight clean sheets – and Zinchenko managed to accrue three assists while he was at it.
With Mendy out for a bit longer, and despite the arrival of back-up Angelino and right-leaning (positionally, not politically) Cancelo, Zinchenko is the number one choice to start at left-back again in 2019/20.
Plus, he’s been priced at 5.5 – less than Digne, the same as a Spurs defender, and the same as the best midfielders Sheffield United and Aston Villa have to offer.
It’s a dream situation for FPL owners… but how long is it going to last?
Mendy might be back in a couple weeks – he’ll miss the first gameweek for sure, but after that it’s anyone guess. Zinchenko’s defensive weaknesses were exposed (by Salah, but still) in the Community Shield, and with Sané out for a long time, Mendy may be brought back quicker as Pep Guardiola looks to shore up the left side.
All of this means the phrase ‘transfer waiting to happen’ is regularly being employed in relation to young Zin.
So is he worth it?
Stock options
To help solve this issue, we’re going to employ a slightly laboured metaphor.
You know that risk warning you hear relating to buying stocks and shares: “The value of your investment may go down as well as up.”
It’s true enough, but a more accurate expression would be, “it will go down as well as up.” You invest in stocks because they offer the biggest upside – they can make you a lot more money than investing in other ways – but they carry an inherent degree of risk, can go wrong unexpectedly, and you can’t rely on them as your source of ready money – you may find that at the time you need it most, it isn’t there.
If you’re considering picking Zinchenko, think of him like one of those high-risk investments. It’s not that he might get suddenly benched – he will get suddenly benched. Probably in a week where City have a plum fixture and you really want him to play.
That’s the downside. The way to play with the likes of Zinchenko is not to hope the downside never comes around, it’s to acknowledge that it will, and assess whether the upside more than makes up for it.
In Zin’s case, you get to buy into the league’s best team, who kept 20 clean sheets last season. And you get a full-back to boot, so there’s some assist potential there.
If he realises that potential and puts in a couple of big scores, you’ll be far enough up on the decision that you won’t mind if you have to transfer him out right afterwards.
In summary…
Treat this as a cold and calculating ‘upside vs downside’ equation. Don’t cross your fingers for a miraculous run in the team, or dream of unrealistic returns.
Accept that you’ll have to spend a transfer at some point, and assign a value to that transfer. Perhaps 4 points – the cost of a hit. Now work out how much of an advantage Zinchenko gives you over the alternatives at his price point. If that advantage is greater than the value of the transfer, go for it.
Not sure? Stay on the safe side and invest a bit more to get to Ederson on 6.0 or Laporte on 6.5.
FPL Panic 