In this post…
- Overview of what player prices are like this season
- Whether there are any essential cheap or out-of-position players out there
- Where to find bargains in a seemingly expensive player list
- Do the promoted teams offer any hot prospects?
- And scroll to the bottom for a summary of the steps you need to take to build your opening squad for the season.
[featured photo: By Кирилл Венедиктов – https://www.soccer.ru/galery/1054364/photo/731520, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=70118526%5D
So it begins! Er, began. A month ago.
It was possibly the earliest start ever for the FPL game, as it opened for 2019/20 on 29 June, sending fans into a frenzy of player analysis and points projections. Well, a few fans anyway. The rest of us were still firmly stuck in the summer routine of gardening, B&Q visits and day trips with the kids. And let’s face it, they do deserve our attention for two months of the year.
And so our re-entry into the FPL world was delayed.
Sound familiar? Well you’re not the only one – the number of teams in FPL rose to over 6 million last season, while at the time of writing this blog post, the number for 2019/20 is barely over 2.5 million. So there are 3.5 million of us still crawling the aisles of B&Q looking for wood stain for the garden fence.
But time rolls on and we have just a week until the Gameweek 1 deadline (that’s right, for the fourth season running, the first deadline is 7pm on Friday. DON’T FORGET!) And we have a whole 15-strong squad to pick between now and then. So who do you pick? Did you miss some key info in the last month? And for a ‘fun’ game, why does it always feel so daunting at the start?
In this blog post we’ll help demystify the initial squad selection process by running through the common questions FPL managers ask before the season begins. It’s rather long, so if you’re short on time, feel free to skip to the bullet-point summary at the end.
What are player prices like?
The big news in 2019/20 is that players are expensive. Clearly those at FPL HQ have learned from last season when the likes of Doherty and Alexander-Arnold were underpriced and ended up in everyone’s teams – and decided to go wayyyyy in the other direction. Among the dizzying price rises are the aforementioned Doherty (6.0 this season from 4.5 last season); Wan-Bissaka (5.5 from 4.0), Mané (11.5 from 9.5), Jimenez (7.5 from 5.5) and Wilson (8.0 from 6.0).
[Spare a thought for Alexis Sanchez who, amid all this, has tumbled in price to 7.0… sympathy pick? Nah.]
Notably, it’s exceedingly hard to find basement-price players this year. Nearly every goalie or defender from a decent team has been saddled with a 5.0 price tag instead of the customary ‘cheapo price’ of 4.5.
Don’t get down about it, though. Everyone starts with the same 100 to spend, and the same player prices to spend it on. We’re not disadvantaged in terms of rank. Plus, with no obvious ‘essential’ players, we may see a more interesting game with greater squad variety between players.
The first thing you need to do is to select a squad of 15 that comes within budget – no matter who’s in it. Get that squad in, then look to refine from there, rather than trying to get it ‘perfect’ first time.
Want to get there quickly? The golden rule is to stick to a maximum of two ‘super premiums’, i.e. players costing over 10, i.e. Salah/Mané/Sterling/Aubameyang/Aguero/Kane (that’s all of them!)
So which premium players do I pick?
We’re not telling you. No really, it’s impossible. Ask people on Twitter if you like – you’ll find out their individual preferences, but there’s no answer as to who’s the best. We think it’s fine to follow your gut feeling here.
All the advice we can give is: Make sure whoever you pick is likely to be your captain at least a few times in the next 10-ish weeks.
You don’t need rigorous analysis to work this out. Here’s a shortcut: Apart from your gut feeling, check out the big guys’ fixtures and look for the plum ones. You’ll soon notice that Salah has an appetising fixture (NOR) in week 1, and so does Kane (AVL). So if you pick Kane, who’s getting the armband in week 2 when he travels to Man City?
Follow this train of thought, find a pair of premiums with a good captaincy rotation, and you’re off to a good start.
Any super-bargains out there?
Everyone wants to find the equivalent of last season’s Wan-Bissaka, who starts and performs well for a rock-bottom price. Find ’em and it makes a massive difference to what you can achieve with your meagre 100 budget.
Well, cold hard reality has set in this season. There’s no one at 4.0 who is expected to set the league alight.
Best we can do is Rico (BOU) who could be handed the starting slot at left-back while Charlie Daniels is out. His rival for the position appears to be Lloyd Kelly – also 4.0 – but Kelly has suffered ankle ligament damage so that surely cements Rico’s place in the team. He’s not known as a legendary defensive force, rather like Bournemouth as a whole, so don’t expect shovelfuls of points – but as a player to sit on your bench, he gets the FPL Panic seal of approval.
Other 4.0 options include another Kelly – this one playing for Palace – though he may lose out to Ward (4.5) in the battle for a starting spot. And Lundstram (SHU), who according to Blades fans is really a midfielder – so could be an out-of-position 4.0 mid if he gets a starting spot. If!
In common with previous seasons, you’ll have to spend at least 4.5 on all your mids and forwards. Bad news first – there are no forwards even at 4.5 who will start for their teams, and (for now at least) you’ll just have to settle for Greenwood (MUN) or Wickham (CPL) and their infrequent 1-pointers off the bench. If young Mason ever wrests the starting spot off Rashford, expect a pile-on of epic proportions…
The better news is that there’s a highly desirable 4.5 midfielder: Dendoncker (WOL), more-or-less nailed on to start for a team that finished 7th last season. His bargain price will be down to the defensive position he occupies on the pitch, but despite that, he does manage a few goal attempts, so in terms of chance of returning points, he’s probably punching a little above his weight.
But really, that’s about it. Slim pickings!
Oh, come on. There must be some bargains!
There are – at mid-price.
The 6-7.5 bracket is particularly fertile ground for good-value players this season.
You might remember Barkley (CHE) from last season –specifically his brief periods of promise followed by punishing sequences of blanks. Well, we’re back for more punishment. There’s actually a lot to recommend Barkley right now – playing well in pre-season for Chelsea, occupying a number-10 role and even taking penalties.
He’s not nailed to start and, well, it’s Barkley, so he has to be classed as a punt. But for a price of 6 (i.e. the same as some Aston Villa mids), do you have a lot to lose?
With Son suspended, Lucas Moura (7.5) is a good short-term way into an attacking position for a potential top-four team. But it’s anyone’s guess as to whether he will keep his starting spot from GW3 onwards. If you want security, you’ll have to go up to Eriksen at 9.
And although defenders have generally risen in price, don’t be fooled – there are a lot of bargains at the back. To take one example – Robertson scored more than 210 points last season, and is now priced at 7.0, which would buy you a mid-table 150-pointer in midfield. Yes, the joint most expensive defender in the game really is a bargain. Load up!
Zinchenko and Stones (both 5.5) might be ways into the Man City back line, with potential injuries to Mendy and Laporte. Just bear in mind that when those two come back, you may be forced into a transfer out – and Guardiola doesn’t give much away, so it’s hard to tell exactly when that will be. Still, Man City can beat anyone and keep clean sheets against anyone, so you’d be getting a week-in-week-out starter for your team, which may be worth it even considering the downside.
Getting even riskier, Walker-Peters (TOT) may edge ahead of Aurier and Foyth for a starting spot. If he does, he’s a dream at 5.0. But how much of a gamble are you willing to take?
Is anyone playing out of position?
Not quite such bleak news here, as the FPL gods have shuffled a few players around, in particular when it comes to the perpetual question of whether attacking wingers should be listed as mids or forwards.
Happily, Zaha (CPL) has returned to midfield status, and with the introduction of VAR could be winning even more pens for Milivojevic to convert. Or have VAR overturn them all for diving… We’ll see, but at 7.0 he’s a player who could return a lot of points, especially as Palace have some appealing fixtures in the first eight weeks.
Elsewhere, Perez (LEI) has moved to midfield in the player list. Plus, he’s a hugely attacking player, who scored 12 goals last season while playing for Newcastle, has now moved to a vastly superior team and still costs just 6.5. Early fixtures aren’t brilliant but there could come a time when he’s in everybody’s team.
Did we mention Newcastle? Ritchie (NEW) is listed as a defender but more like a midfielder – and he’s the only defender likely to take penalities. He is a 5.5 defender playing for Steve Bruce’s suicide squad, though, so must be classed as a punt.
As a bit more of an alternative pick, Trossard (BHA) is likely to play in a Salah-esque position, on the wing in a front three for Brighton. He’s 6.0, which is rather a lot for a player on one of the poorest teams in the league, but perhaps there’ll be a new manager bounce, and of course, attackers can score points regardless of how poor a team is overall.
And did we just mention Salah? He might be the most obvious player in the game but we can’t avoid mentioning that basically-a-striker Salah (LIV) can be selected as a mid again. Happy days.
Who’s good from the promoted teams?
Common advice is to stay away from promoted-team players at the start of the season. Their performances are too unreliable and they may end up being hopeless relegation fodder.
Then again, bargain players are hard to find this season and there are surely some players of genuine promise, at low prices, within the ranks of Villa, Norwich and Sheffield United. The problem is you’re casting into quite a large pool where realistically only a couple of players will pay off – so chances are you’ll pick the wrong one. All we can do is offer vague advice –proceed with caution…
Villa’s back line are priced at 4.5 without a single exception – perhaps it was 4pm on a Friday when the FPL decision-makers came to price them up. “Meh, they’re all crap, right?” Well, maybe. In their promotion season, Villa actually had quite a leaky defence, so they’re ostensibly not overpriced. That said, they have reworked their team significantly and anything could happen. None of their defenders are making it anywhere near the FPL Panic team, but new GK Heaton is of interest.
It’s in the more attacking positions that Villa provides the real potential – specifically midfield. Grealish, McGinn and Hourihane have been touted around, but El Ghazi at 5.5 is our pick of the litter.
Sheffield United offer another keeper worth consideration in the form of Henderson (4.5). There’s the aforementioned Lundstram in defence too. In attack, their signing of Lys Mousset (5.0) isn’t exactly a thriller, but Callum Robinson (5.5) could be playing out of position as an attacker, pending the effects of the signing of McBurnie, who at the time of writing is still to be added to the game.
As for Norwich, Pukki (6.5) is getting a lot of talk, but in all honesty we wouldn’t pick anyone. I guess it’s a case of “let’s not be having you”.
Which formation is best?
Starting with a formation before you’ve picked players is the tail wagging the dog. Much better to list out the players you really want in your squad, then see which positions are bursting with options and which are light.
As probably hinted by the recommendations above, the FPL Panic squad is currently full of defenders and midfielders and is putting out a 4-5-1. That’s not necessarily the best formation, though, and certainly not the default.
Consider flexibility – how easily you can switch it about if, say, an expensive FWD becomes a must-have and you need to free up money.
Here’s an example. If you are fielding a 5-4-1 with Wilson up front, and Kane bangs in braces for the first two games, you’ll find it impossible to get him in because you’ll need to free up at least 4.0 – maybe 7.5 if you decide to upgrade one of your cheapos. But downgrading one of your defenders will release a maximum of 3.0, so you’re looking at 4-point penalties or a wildcard. Ouch.
Technically, the most flexible formation is 4-4-2 as it has one bench spot in each position, so you have equal ability to move in any direction. But that’s not to say it’s the formation you have to pick.
All we’d really say is: Disregard the outdated idea that 3-4-3 is the ‘standard’ formation, and don’t shy away from spending money in defence. Once upon a time we might have scrimped at the back to fill our teams with big-name forwards because ‘obviously’ they were better, but not only have many managers moved away from that mode of thinking, they’re getting more points for it too.
Oh, come on. Just tell me who to pick.
Fine. Here are some players we think are worth a mention.
Man City have been woefully under-represented in this post, given that they’re The Best Team Ever™. Ederson (6.0) is nailed to start and get clean sheets, but he’ll rarely get save points or bonus, so your budget may be better spent elsewhere. De Bruyne (9.5) is hugely appealing but in FPL Panic’s books goes down as a wait-and-see.
In the realms of the truly obvious, Sterling (12.0) is our number one pick to be FPL’s top scorer this season, and Aguero is strangely overlooked at 12.0. If only we could have them all.
Digne (EVE) is in loads of teams. With money tight, we may be more likely to pick Coleman for 0.5 less. He’s hugely attacking and proven in the Premier League. Sigurdsson (8.0) is on pens and a good scorer, though priced slightly too high to be an easy fit into most GW1 teams.
Wilson (BOU) is in a lot of teams, but 8.0 for a Bournemouth forward? We just can’t do it and would honestly go for King (6.5) instead. That 1.5 can be put to a lot of use – the decision really isn’t just Wilson v King, it’s (for example) Wilson + Diop vs King + Walker. Easy!
Fraser (7.5) is the alternative, and just about affordable in a packed midfield price bracket. Felipe Anderson (WHU) is 0.5 cheaper and has some good fixtures after the very first one – probably because of that GW1 fixture, he’s not in a lot of teams, which in our opinion makes him an excellent prospect to gain a few points on the masses. And Martial (7.5) is right in that price equation too, plays for a top-six team (it’s Man Utd but still), and is a top fantasy player with an attacking outlook. He didn’t get the minutes last season, but if Solskjaer rectifies that, he’ll be on for a big total. We prefer him to Pogba and, though we likely won’t have him for GW1, really want to get him in soon.
Slightly up the price scale, Pepe (9.5) is a new arrival at Arsenal and too expensive for most to consider him right away. But Aubameyang (11.0) is going in some teams, and there’s a chance they could play in the same position (attacking winger either side of Lacazette), with Pepe getting an extra goal point and clean sheet point into the bargain. Verdict is probably wait and see.
And we’re all in on Vardy (9.0), a seemingly fixture-proof forward who’s the main man for an attacking Brendan Rodgers team.
In Summary…
What do you mean, this is a long post? If this was a recipe blog, you’d still be scrolling now. But not to worry – here’s our brief guide to assembling your Gameweek 1 team:
- It’s all about money management right now, so be prepared to bring a Scrooge-like miserly approach to your squad, and squeeze out every 0.5 that you can.
- Pick your two favourites from Salah, Mané, Sterling, Aubameyang, Aguero, Kane (you won’t have enough funds for any more)
- Grab one mid-pricer – 6.0-8.5 – in each of midfield and attack.
- Sack off most of your rotation options – an expensive bench is a luxury you probably can’t afford at this stage. We recommend a 4.0 waste-of-space keeper, a 4.0 playing defender if you can find one, and a Dendoncker.
- Now that you’ve done all that scrimping, you can splurge in defence – it’s a lot harder to waste money here. Try a defensive five with prices along these lines: 7.0, 6.5, 5.5, 5.5*, 4.0. [*We’re not saying you have to go with four at the back, so feel free to downgrade this fourth def and upgrade your Dendoncker instead.]
- You’ve got one starting mid/fwd, one bench mid/fwd, and your starting goalie to go. Prioritise the first one, and just use whatever’s left on the GK. If you can afford Ederson, great. But we couldn’t.
In just a week, all the pre-season angst will be dispelled and we’ll be on with the game. We’ll be back between now and then with more insight. Until then, good luck and don’t forget to have fun picking your team.
FPL Panic 